Champions League 19:00 GMT
Home Win 
Bayern xG 1.45 
PSG xG 1.33 1-1
Top Pick
1-1
13%
2-1
9%
1-2
8%
0-0
8%
๐ฏ
Correct Score Predictions Today
Wednesday, 6 May 2026 ยท 1 matches
Most likely scorelines from a Poisson model on expected goals โ we list the top 4 probability scores for every fixture, with the actual percentage mass attached to each.
Bayern xG 1.45 PSG xG 1.33 How These Score Predictions Work
For each match we project expected goals for both sides โ home attack strength ร away defence strength ร the league's home-goals baseline (and the mirror for the away team). Those become the ฮป (lambda) parameters of two Poisson distributions. We then evaluate P(home = i) ร P(away = j) for every (i, j) from 0-0 through 7-7 and rank the results by probability.
The percentage next to each score is the actual Poisson mass for that cell โ not an approximation. A 12% score means the model puts 12 units of probability out of 100 on exactly that scoreline. For the deeper methodology, see our correct score betting strategy.
Be Honest About the Maths
Correct score is the hardest market to beat long-term. The top scoreline might show 12% probability, but the bookmaker's implied probability from their odds might be 9%. That 3% gap is your edge โ if it's real. Over 50 bets at those margins, you'd expect a profit. Over 5 bets, variance dominates and anything can happen.
The practical takeaway: use these as one input alongside our BTTS analysis and Over/Under tips. If the correct score, BTTS, and Over/Under models all point the same direction (say, 2-1 predicted, BTTS Yes, Over 2.5), that's convergence worth acting on. When they disagree, the match is genuinely unpredictable โ and sitting one out is a valid move.