Football Predictions Today

Everton 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game). Chelsea 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 (2.5 / 2.17 per game). At home specifically, Everton are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. On the road, Chelsea are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Everton and 1.50 for Chelsea (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 29% Everton, 28% draw, 42% Chelsea. Chelsea have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Fulham 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Hull City 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 (1.2 / 0.8 per game). At home specifically, Fulham are averaging 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded. On the road, Hull City are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fulham and 1.18 for Hull City (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% Fulham, 30% draw, 33% Hull City. Fulham are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Man City 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.6 scored, 1 conceded per game). Ipswich Town 3W 0D 3L from their last 6 (1.5 / 2 per game). At home specifically, Man City are averaging 2.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Ipswich Town are averaging 1.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Man City and 2.06 for Ipswich Town (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 39% Man City, 22% draw, 39% Ipswich Town. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (78%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (77%). Man City are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Brentford 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 matches (2 scored, 1 conceded per game). Liverpool 2W 3D 0L from their last 5 (1.4 / 0.8 per game). At home specifically, Brentford are averaging 2.33 scored and 0.33 conceded. On the road, Liverpool are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brentford and 1.01 for Liverpool (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Brentford, 31% draw, 27% Liverpool. Brentford are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Newcastle 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game). Aston Villa 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 (1 / 1.83 per game). At home specifically, Newcastle are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded. On the road, Aston Villa are averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Newcastle and 2.55 for Aston Villa (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 30% Newcastle, 20% draw, 49% Aston Villa. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (83%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (81%). Aston Villa have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Espanyol 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 matches (1.14 scored, 1.57 conceded per game). Atleti 6W 1D 1L from their last 8 (2.25 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Espanyol are averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Atleti are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Espanyol and 2.15 for Atleti (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 20% Espanyol, 23% draw, 58% Atleti. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%).

Villarreal 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 matches (1.57 scored, 1.57 conceded per game). Elche 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 (1.43 / 2.29 per game). At home specifically, Villarreal are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Elche are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.83 for Elche (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 35% Villarreal, 24% draw, 41% Elche. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (68%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (70%). Elche have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Real Betis 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 matches (1.75 scored, 1.13 conceded per game). Barça 8W 0D 0L from their last 8 (4.25 / 0.88 per game). At home specifically, Real Betis are averaging 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, Barça are averaging 4.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.88 for Barça (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 39% Real Betis, 23% draw, 38% Barça. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (72%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (73%). Real Betis are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Valencia 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 matches (0.75 scored, 1.88 conceded per game). Athletic 2W 3D 2L from their last 7 (1 / 0.86 per game). At home specifically, Valencia are averaging 0.50 scored and 2.25 conceded. On the road, Athletic are averaging 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Valencia and 1.29 for Athletic (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 21% Valencia, 32% draw, 47% Athletic. Under 2.5 carries 66% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Athletic have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Venezia FC 0W 0D 6L in their last 6 matches (0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded per game). Napoli 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 (1.67 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Venezia FC are averaging 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. On the road, Napoli are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Venezia FC and 1.81 for Napoli (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Venezia FC, 26% draw, 50% Napoli. Both teams scoring looks likely (60%). Napoli have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Bologna 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 matches (0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded per game). Inter 5W 1D 0L from their last 6 (3 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Bologna are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Inter are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bologna and 1.47 for Inter (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 34% Bologna, 28% draw, 38% Inter. Inter have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Roma 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 matches (2.33 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Genoa 1W 1D 4L from their last 6 (0.83 / 1.83 per game). At home specifically, Roma are averaging 2.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Genoa are averaging 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Roma and 1.14 for Genoa (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 51% Roma, 26% draw, 23% Genoa. Roma are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 3.4 conceded per game). Dortmund 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 (2.2 / 0.8 per game). At home specifically, Union Berlin are averaging 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Dortmund are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.31 for Dortmund (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 65% Union Berlin, 19% draw, 16% Dortmund. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (76%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (69%).

HSV 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 3 conceded per game). Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 (1.6 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, HSV are averaging 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. On the road, Stuttgart are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for HSV and 1.98 for Stuttgart (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 42% HSV, 22% draw, 36% Stuttgart. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (77%). HSV are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Bremen 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 2 conceded per game). SC Paderborn 1W 1D 3L from their last 5 (0.6 / 1.4 per game). At home specifically, Bremen are averaging 3.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, SC Paderborn are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Bremen and 0.98 for SC Paderborn (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 74% Bremen, 16% draw, 10% SC Paderborn. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (72%) — look at the goals markets.

Elversberg 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per game). Augsburg 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 (2.6 / 1.6 per game). At home specifically, Elversberg are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Augsburg are averaging 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Elversberg and 2.13 for Augsburg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Elversberg, 23% draw, 53% Augsburg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (68%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (67%). Augsburg have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Schalke 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game). Mainz 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 (2.6 / 2 per game). At home specifically, Schalke are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. On the road, Mainz are averaging 4.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Schalke and 1.05 for Mainz (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 63% Schalke, 21% draw, 15% Mainz. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets.

Bayern 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game). RB Leipzig 3W 0D 2L from their last 5 (3 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Bayern are averaging 6.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, RB Leipzig are averaging 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 3.49 expected goals for Bayern and 0.86 for RB Leipzig (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 85% Bayern, 10% draw, 5% RB Leipzig. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (80%) — look at the goals markets.

Strasbourg 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 matches (1.83 scored, 2 conceded per game). PSG 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Strasbourg are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, PSG are averaging 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Strasbourg and 2.21 for PSG (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 23% Strasbourg, 22% draw, 54% PSG. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (70%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (69%). PSG have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Troyes 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 matches (0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded per game). RC Lens 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Troyes are averaging 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. On the road, RC Lens are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Troyes and 1.80 for RC Lens (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Troyes, 25% draw, 43% RC Lens. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). RC Lens have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Lille 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 matches (1.5 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Brest 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 (2 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Lille are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. On the road, Brest are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lille and 1.07 for Brest (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Lille, 28% draw, 24% Brest. Lille are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.