Belgium vs Iran Prediction

Belgium vs Iran: the preview

Belgium meet Iran in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 21 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Belgium are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2018. Iran come in as a AFC nation, best known for never advanced past the group stage.

Belgium 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 matches (2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded per game). Iran 0W 3D 0L from their last 3 (1 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Belgium are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Iran are averaging 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Belgium and 0.63 for Iran (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 40% Belgium, 38% draw, 22% Iran. Under 2.5 carries 79% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (70%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Belgium are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Belgium vs Iran prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (40% confidence). It projects roughly 1.59 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 21% and both teams to score at 30%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Belgium and Iran ahead of kickoff.