Belgium vs Iran Prediction

Belgium vs Iran: the preview

Belgium meet Iran in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 21 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Belgium are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2018. Iran come in as a AFC nation, best known for never advanced past the group stage.

No recent finished data on Belgium in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Belgium and 1.29 for Iran (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Belgium, 28% draw, 30% Iran. Belgium are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Belgium vs Iran prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Belgium and Iran ahead of kickoff.