Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

Belgium vs Senegal: the preview

Belgium meet Senegal in Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Wednesday, July 1 at 4:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Belgium are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2018. Senegal come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals on their 2002 debut.

Belgium 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 matches (2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded per game). Senegal 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 (2.5 / 2.25 per game). At home specifically, Belgium are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Senegal are averaging 1.67 scored and 3.00 conceded. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Belgium and 0.95 for Senegal (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 55% Belgium, 26% draw, 19% Senegal. Belgium are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Belgium vs Senegal prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (55% confidence). It projects roughly 2.7 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 52%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Belgium and Senegal ahead of kickoff.