Congo DR vs Uzbekistan Prediction

Congo DR vs Uzbekistan: the preview

Congo DR meet Uzbekistan in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 7:30 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Congo DR are a CAF side whose best run is group stage in 1974 (as Zaire). Uzbekistan come in as a AFC nation, best known for first World Cup appearance.

Congo DR 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 matches (1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded per game). Uzbekistan 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 (0.67 / 3.67 per game). On the road, Uzbekistan are averaging 0.50 scored and 4.00 conceded. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Congo DR and 1.90 for Uzbekistan (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 45% Congo DR, 22% draw, 33% Uzbekistan. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (78%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (77%). Congo DR are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Congo DR vs Uzbekistan prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (45% confidence). It projects roughly 4.14 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 78% and both teams to score at 77%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Congo DR and Uzbekistan ahead of kickoff.