Croatia vs Ghana Prediction

Croatia vs Ghana: the preview

Croatia meet Ghana in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Croatia are a UEFA side whose best run is runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022. Ghana come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

Croatia 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 matches (1.5 scored, 1.75 conceded per game). Ghana 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (0.5 / 0.75 per game). On the road, Ghana are averaging 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Croatia and 1.93 for Ghana (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 55% Croatia, 19% draw, 26% Ghana. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (85%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (81%). Croatia are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Croatia vs Ghana prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-1 (55% confidence). It projects roughly 4.69 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 85% and both teams to score at 81%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Croatia and Ghana ahead of kickoff.