Croatia vs Ghana Prediction

Croatia vs Ghana: the preview

Croatia meet Ghana in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Croatia are a UEFA side whose best run is runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022. Ghana come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

No recent finished data on Croatia in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Croatia and 1.29 for Ghana (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Croatia, 27% draw, 30% Ghana. Croatia are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Croatia vs Ghana prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.86 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Croatia and Ghana ahead of kickoff.