Croatia vs Ghana Prediction

Croatia vs Ghana: the preview

Croatia meet Ghana in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Croatia are a UEFA side whose best run is runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022. Ghana come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

Croatia 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Ghana 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (0.67 / 0.67 per game). On the road, Ghana are averaging 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 2.97 expected goals for Croatia and 2.20 for Ghana (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 54% Croatia, 18% draw, 28% Ghana. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (89%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (85%). Croatia are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Croatia vs Ghana prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-2 (54% confidence). It projects roughly 5.16 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 89% and both teams to score at 85%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Croatia and Ghana ahead of kickoff.