Egypt vs Iran Prediction

Egypt vs Iran: the preview

Egypt meet Iran in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 11:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Egypt are a CAF side whose best run is group stage in 1934, 1990 and 2018. Iran come in as a AFC nation, best known for never advanced past the group stage.

Egypt 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game). Iran 0W 3D 0L from their last 3 (1 / 1 per game). On the road, Iran are averaging 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Egypt and 0.92 for Iran (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Egypt, 32% draw, 25% Iran. Under 2.5 carries 62% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Egypt are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Egypt vs Iran prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.2 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Egypt and Iran ahead of kickoff.