England vs Congo DR Prediction

England vs Congo DR: the preview

England meet Congo DR in Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Wednesday, July 1 at 12:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. England are 1-time world champions. Congo DR come in as a CAF nation, best known for group stage in 1974 (as Zaire).

England 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 matches (2 scored, 1.14 conceded per game). Congo DR 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (1.25 / 1.25 per game). At home specifically, England are averaging 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. On the road, Congo DR are averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for England and 1.14 for Congo DR (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 60% England, 22% draw, 18% Congo DR. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%).

Our England vs Congo DR prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (60% confidence). It projects roughly 3.31 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 61%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on England and Congo DR ahead of kickoff.