England vs Croatia Prediction

England vs Croatia: the preview

England meet Croatia in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Wednesday, June 17 at 4:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. England are 1-time world champions. Croatia come in as a UEFA nation, best known for runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022.

England 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 matches (2 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Croatia 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, England are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Croatia are averaging 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 3.83 expected goals for England and 3.86 for Croatia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 42% England, 16% draw, 42% Croatia. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (98%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (96%). Croatia have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our England vs Croatia prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-3 (42% confidence). It projects roughly 7.7 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 98% and both teams to score at 96%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on England and Croatia ahead of kickoff.