France vs Iraq Prediction

France vs Iraq: the preview

France meet Iraq in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, June 22 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. France are 2-time world champions. Iraq come in as a AFC nation, best known for group stage in 1986.

France 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 matches (3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Iraq 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 (0.33 / 4 per game). At home specifically, France are averaging 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, Iraq are averaging 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for France and 0.41 for Iraq (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 46% France, 40% draw, 15% Iraq. Under 2.5 carries 85% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (79%) — at least one side is projected to blank. France are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our France vs Iraq prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (46% confidence). It projects roughly 1.32 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 15% and both teams to score at 21%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on France and Iraq ahead of kickoff.