France vs Spain Prediction

France vs Spain: the preview

France meet Spain in Semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, July 14 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. France are 2-time world champions. Spain come in as 1-time winners.

France 6W 0D 0L in their last 6 matches (2.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per game). Spain 5W 1D 0L from their last 6 (1.83 / 0.17 per game). At home specifically, France are averaging 2.75 scored and 0.25 conceded. On the road, Spain are averaging 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for France and 0.72 for Spain (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 47% France, 33% draw, 20% Spain. Under 2.5 carries 69% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (62%) — at least one side is projected to blank. France are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our France vs Spain prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-0 (47% confidence). It projects roughly 1.94 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 38%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on France and Spain ahead of kickoff.