Germany vs Paraguay Prediction

Germany vs Paraguay: the preview

Germany meet Paraguay in Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, June 29 at 4:30 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Germany are 4-time world champions. Paraguay come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

Germany 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 matches (3.5 scored, 2.25 conceded per game). Paraguay 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 (1.4 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, Germany are averaging 4.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. On the road, Paraguay are averaging 2.33 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Germany and 4.42 for Paraguay (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 17% Germany, 13% draw, 71% Paraguay. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (89%).

Our Germany vs Paraguay prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-4 (71% confidence). It projects roughly 6.75 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 89%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Germany and Paraguay ahead of kickoff.