Iran vs New Zealand Prediction

Iran vs New Zealand: the preview

Iran meet New Zealand in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 16 at 9:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Iran are a AFC side whose best run is never advanced past the group stage. New Zealand come in as a OFC nation, best known for unbeaten group stage in 2010.

No recent finished data on Iran in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Iran and 1.29 for New Zealand (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Iran, 28% draw, 30% New Zealand. Iran are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Iran vs New Zealand prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Iran and New Zealand ahead of kickoff.