Iran vs New Zealand Prediction

Iran vs New Zealand: the preview

Iran meet New Zealand in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 16 at 9:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Iran are a AFC side whose best run is never advanced past the group stage. New Zealand come in as a OFC nation, best known for unbeaten group stage in 2010.

Iran 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1 conceded per game). New Zealand 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 (1.33 / 3.33 per game). The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Iran and 1.71 for New Zealand (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 38% Iran, 25% draw, 37% New Zealand. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (67%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (68%). Iran are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Iran vs New Zealand prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (38% confidence). It projects roughly 3.43 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Iran and New Zealand ahead of kickoff.