Iraq vs Norway Prediction

Iraq vs Norway: the preview

Iraq meet Norway in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 16 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Iraq are a AFC side whose best run is group stage in 1986. Norway come in as a UEFA nation, best known for round of 16 in 1998.

No recent finished data on Iraq in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Iraq and 1.29 for Norway (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Iraq, 28% draw, 30% Norway. Iraq are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Iraq vs Norway prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Iraq and Norway ahead of kickoff.