Iraq vs Norway Prediction

Iraq vs Norway: the preview

Iraq meet Norway in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 16 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Iraq are a AFC side whose best run is group stage in 1986. Norway come in as a UEFA nation, best known for round of 16 in 1998.

Iraq 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 4 conceded per game). Norway 4W 0D 2L from their last 6 (2.17 / 1.83 per game). On the road, Norway are averaging 2.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Iraq and 2.23 for Norway (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 13% Iraq, 21% draw, 66% Norway. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets.

Our Iraq vs Norway prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-2 (66% confidence). It projects roughly 3.14 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 54%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Iraq and Norway ahead of kickoff.