Iraq vs Norway Prediction

Iraq vs Norway: the preview

Iraq meet Norway in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 16 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Iraq are a AFC side whose best run is group stage in 1986. Norway come in as a UEFA nation, best known for round of 16 in 1998.

Iraq 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 4 conceded per game). Norway 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (2.67 / 2.33 per game). The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Iraq and 1.37 for Norway (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 21% Iraq, 31% draw, 49% Norway. Under 2.5 carries 63% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Norway have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Iraq vs Norway prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-1 (49% confidence). It projects roughly 2.17 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 43%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Iraq and Norway ahead of kickoff.