Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Prediction

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador: the preview

Ivory Coast meet Ecuador in Group E of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 14 at 7:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Ivory Coast are a CAF side whose best run is group stage in 2006, 2010 and 2014. Ecuador come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for round of 16 in 2006.

Ivory Coast 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Ecuador 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (0.67 / 0.67 per game). The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ivory Coast and 0.72 for Ecuador (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 36% Ivory Coast, 38% draw, 26% Ecuador. Under 2.5 carries 78% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (68%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Hard to split on projected goals — the draw is the model's call, Double Chance covers it safely.

Our Ivory Coast vs Ecuador prediction

The model's lean is Draw with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (38% confidence). It projects roughly 1.62 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 22% and both teams to score at 32%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Ivory Coast and Ecuador ahead of kickoff.