Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Prediction

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador: the preview

Ivory Coast meet Ecuador in Group E of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 14 at 7:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Ivory Coast are a CAF side whose best run is group stage in 2006, 2010 and 2014. Ecuador come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for round of 16 in 2006.

Ivory Coast 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 matches (1.25 scored, 1 conceded per game). Ecuador 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (0.5 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Ivory Coast are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Ecuador are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ivory Coast and 0.80 for Ecuador (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 39% Ivory Coast, 35% draw, 26% Ecuador. Under 2.5 carries 72% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (63%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Ivory Coast are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Ivory Coast vs Ecuador prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (39% confidence). It projects roughly 1.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 28% and both teams to score at 37%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Ivory Coast and Ecuador ahead of kickoff.