New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction

New Zealand vs Belgium: the preview

New Zealand meet Belgium in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 11:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. New Zealand are a OFC side whose best run is unbeaten group stage in 2010. Belgium come in as a UEFA nation, best known for third place in 2018.

New Zealand 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded per game). Belgium 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 (2 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, New Zealand are averaging 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for New Zealand and 2.53 for Belgium (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 30% New Zealand, 20% draw, 50% Belgium. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (83%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (80%). Belgium have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our New Zealand vs Belgium prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-2 (50% confidence). It projects roughly 4.5 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 83% and both teams to score at 80%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on New Zealand and Belgium ahead of kickoff.