New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction

New Zealand vs Belgium: the preview

New Zealand meet Belgium in Group G of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 11:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. New Zealand are a OFC side whose best run is unbeaten group stage in 2010. Belgium come in as a UEFA nation, best known for third place in 2018.

New Zealand 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded per game). Belgium 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 (2.33 / 1.17 per game). At home specifically, New Zealand are averaging 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. On the road, Belgium are averaging 3.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for New Zealand and 2.69 for Belgium (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 17% New Zealand, 19% draw, 64% Belgium. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (71%).

Our New Zealand vs Belgium prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-2 (64% confidence). It projects roughly 4.09 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 71%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on New Zealand and Belgium ahead of kickoff.