Norway vs France Prediction

Norway vs France: the preview

Norway meet France in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 26 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Norway are a UEFA side whose best run is round of 16 in 1998. France come in as 2-time winners.

Norway 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded per game). France 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (3.33 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, Norway are averaging 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Norway and 1.34 for France (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 18% Norway, 31% draw, 51% France. Under 2.5 carries 67% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (62%) — at least one side is projected to blank. France have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Norway vs France prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-1 (51% confidence). It projects roughly 2.04 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 38%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Norway and France ahead of kickoff.