Norway vs Senegal Prediction

Norway vs Senegal: the preview

Norway meet Senegal in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 23 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Norway are a UEFA side whose best run is round of 16 in 1998. Senegal come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals on their 2002 debut.

Norway 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded per game). Senegal 1W 0D 2L from their last 3 (2.67 / 2 per game). At home specifically, Norway are averaging 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. On the road, Senegal are averaging 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Norway and 0.95 for Senegal (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% Norway, 34% draw, 29% Senegal. Under 2.5 carries 66% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Norway are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Norway vs Senegal prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (37% confidence). It projects roughly 2.05 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 43%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Norway and Senegal ahead of kickoff.