Panama vs Croatia Prediction

Panama vs Croatia: the preview

Panama meet Croatia in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 23 at 7:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Panama are a CONCACAF side whose best run is group stage on their 2018 debut. Croatia come in as a UEFA nation, best known for runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022.

Panama 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Croatia 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Panama are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, Croatia are averaging 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Panama and 2.49 for Croatia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 46% Panama, 19% draw, 36% Croatia. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (90%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (86%). Panama are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Panama vs Croatia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-2 (46% confidence). It projects roughly 5.29 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 90% and both teams to score at 86%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Panama and Croatia ahead of kickoff.