Panama vs Croatia Prediction

Panama vs Croatia: the preview

Panama meet Croatia in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, June 23 at 7:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Panama are a CONCACAF side whose best run is group stage on their 2018 debut. Croatia come in as a UEFA nation, best known for runners-up in 2018, third in 1998 and 2022.

No recent finished data on Panama in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Panama and 1.29 for Croatia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Panama, 28% draw, 30% Croatia. Panama are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Panama vs Croatia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Panama and Croatia ahead of kickoff.