Paraguay vs Australia Prediction

Paraguay vs Australia: the preview

Paraguay meet Australia in Group D of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 26 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Paraguay are a CONMEBOL side whose best run is quarter-finals in 2010. Australia come in as a AFC nation, best known for round of 16 in 2006 and 2022.

Paraguay 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game). Australia 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (1.25 / 1.75 per game). At home specifically, Paraguay are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, Australia are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Paraguay and 0.54 for Australia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Paraguay, 38% draw, 19% Australia. Under 2.5 carries 81% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (73%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Paraguay are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Paraguay vs Australia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 1.48 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 19% and both teams to score at 27%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Paraguay and Australia ahead of kickoff.