Portugal vs Congo DR Prediction

Portugal vs Congo DR: the preview

Portugal meet Congo DR in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Wednesday, June 17 at 1:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Portugal are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 1966, fourth in 2006. Congo DR come in as a CAF nation, best known for group stage in 1974 (as Zaire).

Portugal 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 matches (2 scored, 0.33 conceded per game). Congo DR 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.33 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Portugal are averaging 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, Congo DR are averaging 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Portugal and 1.00 for Congo DR (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 57% Portugal, 25% draw, 18% Congo DR.

Our Portugal vs Congo DR prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (57% confidence). It projects roughly 2.91 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 55%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Portugal and Congo DR ahead of kickoff.