Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Prediction

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay: the preview

Saudi Arabia meet Uruguay in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, June 15 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Saudi Arabia are a AFC side whose best run is round of 16 in 1994. Uruguay come in as 2-time winners.

Saudi Arabia 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Uruguay 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 (1 / 1.33 per game). The model projects 3.61 expected goals for Saudi Arabia and 3.29 for Uruguay (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 46% Saudi Arabia, 16% draw, 37% Uruguay. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (97%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (94%). Saudi Arabia are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-3 (46% confidence). It projects roughly 6.9 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 97% and both teams to score at 94%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Saudi Arabia and Uruguay ahead of kickoff.