Scotland vs Morocco Prediction

Scotland vs Morocco: the preview

Scotland meet Morocco in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 19 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Scotland are a UEFA side whose best run is never advanced past the group stage. Morocco come in as a CAF nation, best known for fourth place in 2022, the best by an African nation.

Scotland 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Morocco 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 (2.17 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Scotland are averaging 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Morocco are averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Scotland and 2.00 for Morocco (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 16% Scotland, 23% draw, 60% Morocco.

Our Scotland vs Morocco prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (60% confidence). It projects roughly 2.96 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 55%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Scotland and Morocco ahead of kickoff.