Senegal vs Iraq Prediction

Senegal vs Iraq: the preview

Senegal meet Iraq in Group I of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 26 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Senegal are a CAF side whose best run is quarter-finals on their 2002 debut. Iraq come in as a AFC nation, best known for group stage in 1986.

Senegal 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (2.67 scored, 2 conceded per game). Iraq 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 (0.33 / 4 per game). On the road, Iraq are averaging 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Senegal and 0.60 for Iraq (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 46% Senegal, 35% draw, 18% Iraq. Under 2.5 carries 76% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (68%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Senegal are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Senegal vs Iraq prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (46% confidence). It projects roughly 1.71 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 24% and both teams to score at 32%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Senegal and Iraq ahead of kickoff.