Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction

Sweden vs Tunisia: the preview

Sweden meet Tunisia in Group F of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, June 15 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Sweden are a UEFA side whose best run is runners-up as hosts in 1958. Tunisia come in as a CAF nation, best known for never past the group stage.

Sweden 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 matches (1.75 scored, 2.5 conceded per game). Tunisia 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 (0.67 / 4 per game). The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sweden and 0.97 for Tunisia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 44% Sweden, 31% draw, 25% Tunisia. Sweden are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Sweden vs Tunisia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (44% confidence). It projects roughly 2.32 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Sweden and Tunisia ahead of kickoff.