Tunisia vs Japan Prediction

Tunisia vs Japan: the preview

Tunisia meet Japan in Group F of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 21 at 12:00 AM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Tunisia are a CAF side whose best run is never past the group stage. Japan come in as a AFC nation, best known for round of 16 four times.

Tunisia 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.67 scored, 4 conceded per game). Japan 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 (2.33 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Tunisia are averaging 0.50 scored and 3.50 conceded. On the road, Japan are averaging 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Tunisia and 1.05 for Japan (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Tunisia, 36% draw, 41% Japan. Under 2.5 carries 73% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (64%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Japan have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Tunisia vs Japan prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 0-0 (41% confidence). It projects roughly 1.79 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 27% and both teams to score at 36%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Tunisia and Japan ahead of kickoff.