Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction

Tunisia vs Netherlands: the preview

Tunisia meet Netherlands in Group F of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Thursday, June 25 at 7:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Tunisia are a CAF side whose best run is never past the group stage. Netherlands come in as a UEFA nation, best known for three-time runners-up (1974, 1978, 2010).

Tunisia 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.67 scored, 4 conceded per game). Netherlands 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (3.33 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Tunisia are averaging 0.50 scored and 3.50 conceded. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Tunisia and 1.30 for Netherlands (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 25% Tunisia, 31% draw, 44% Netherlands. Under 2.5 carries 62% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Netherlands have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (44% confidence). It projects roughly 2.22 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 45%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Tunisia and Netherlands ahead of kickoff.