Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction

Turkey vs Paraguay: the preview

Turkey meet Paraguay in Group D of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 20 at 11:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Turkey are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2002. Paraguay come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

Turkey 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Paraguay 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 (1.4 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, Turkey are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, Paraguay are averaging 2.33 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Turkey and 1.85 for Paraguay (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 30% Turkey, 25% draw, 45% Paraguay. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). Paraguay have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Turkey vs Paraguay prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (45% confidence). It projects roughly 3.31 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Turkey and Paraguay ahead of kickoff.