Turkey vs United States Prediction

Turkey vs United States: the preview

Turkey meet United States in Group D of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 26 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Turkey are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2002. United States come in as a CONCACAF nation, best known for third place at the inaugural 1930 tournament.

Turkey 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). United States 3W 0D 2L from their last 5 (2.2 / 1.6 per game). At home specifically, Turkey are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Turkey and 1.66 for United States (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 38% Turkey, 25% draw, 37% United States. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (67%). Turkey are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Turkey vs United States prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (38% confidence). It projects roughly 3.36 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 67%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Turkey and United States ahead of kickoff.