Turkey vs United States Prediction

Turkey vs United States: the preview

Turkey meet United States in Group D of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, June 26 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Turkey are a UEFA side whose best run is third place in 2002. United States come in as a CONCACAF nation, best known for third place at the inaugural 1930 tournament.

Turkey 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). United States 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (2.67 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Turkey are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 3.98 expected goals for Turkey and 2.78 for United States (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 59% Turkey, 15% draw, 26% United States. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (92%).

Our Turkey vs United States prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-2 (59% confidence). It projects roughly 6.76 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 92%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Turkey and United States ahead of kickoff.