United States vs Paraguay Prediction

United States vs Paraguay: the preview

United States meet Paraguay in Group D of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 13 at 9:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. United States are a CONCACAF side whose best run is third place at the inaugural 1930 tournament. Paraguay come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

United States 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (2.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game). Paraguay 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 (1.4 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, United States are averaging 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. On the road, Paraguay are averaging 2.33 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for United States and 2.02 for Paraguay (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% United States, 23% draw, 45% Paraguay. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (71%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (72%). Paraguay have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our United States vs Paraguay prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (45% confidence). It projects roughly 3.7 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 72%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on United States and Paraguay ahead of kickoff.