Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands Prediction

Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands: the preview

Uruguay meet Cape Verde Islands in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Sunday, June 21 at 6:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uruguay are 2-time world champions. Cape Verde Islands come in as a CAF nation, best known for first World Cup appearance.

Uruguay 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Cape Verde Islands 0W 3D 0L from their last 3 (0.67 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, Uruguay are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, Cape Verde Islands are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 3.59 expected goals for Uruguay and 3.13 for Cape Verde Islands (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 48% Uruguay, 17% draw, 35% Cape Verde Islands. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (93%). Uruguay are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-3 (48% confidence). It projects roughly 6.72 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 93%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands ahead of kickoff.