Uruguay vs Spain Prediction

Uruguay vs Spain: the preview

Uruguay meet Spain in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uruguay are 2-time world champions. Spain come in as 1-time winners.

No recent finished data on Uruguay in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Uruguay and 1.29 for Spain (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Uruguay, 28% draw, 30% Spain. Uruguay are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Uruguay vs Spain prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uruguay and Spain ahead of kickoff.