Uruguay vs Spain Prediction

Uruguay vs Spain: the preview

Uruguay meet Spain in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uruguay are 2-time world champions. Spain come in as 1-time winners.

Uruguay 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Spain 6W 1D 0L from their last 7 (1.86 / 0.14 per game). At home specifically, Uruguay are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, Spain are averaging 1.33 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Uruguay and 2.60 for Spain (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 19% Uruguay, 19% draw, 61% Spain. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (72%).

Our Uruguay vs Spain prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-2 (61% confidence). It projects roughly 4.06 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 72%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uruguay and Spain ahead of kickoff.