Uruguay vs Spain Prediction

Uruguay vs Spain: the preview

Uruguay meet Spain in Group H of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, June 27 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uruguay are 2-time world champions. Spain come in as 1-time winners.

Uruguay 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Spain 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (1.67 / 0 per game). At home specifically, Uruguay are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 3.35 expected goals for Uruguay and 3.21 for Spain (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 44% Uruguay, 17% draw, 40% Spain. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (93%). Uruguay are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Uruguay vs Spain prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-3 (44% confidence). It projects roughly 6.56 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 93%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uruguay and Spain ahead of kickoff.