Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction

Uzbekistan vs Colombia: the preview

Uzbekistan meet Colombia in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Thursday, June 18 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uzbekistan are a AFC side whose best run is first World Cup appearance. Colombia come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2014.

Uzbekistan 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded per game). Colombia 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (1.33 / 0.33 per game). The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Uzbekistan and 2.09 for Colombia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Uzbekistan, 21% draw, 36% Colombia. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (81%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (79%). Uzbekistan are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-2 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 4.36 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 79%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uzbekistan and Colombia ahead of kickoff.