Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction

Uzbekistan vs Colombia: the preview

Uzbekistan meet Colombia in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Thursday, June 18 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uzbekistan are a AFC side whose best run is first World Cup appearance. Colombia come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2014.

No recent finished data on Uzbekistan in this competition — the model leans on league averages. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Uzbekistan and 1.29 for Colombia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Uzbekistan, 28% draw, 30% Colombia. Uzbekistan are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.85 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 59%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uzbekistan and Colombia ahead of kickoff.