Uzbekistan vs Colombia Prediction

Uzbekistan vs Colombia: the preview

Uzbekistan meet Colombia in Group K of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Thursday, June 18 at 10:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Uzbekistan are a AFC side whose best run is first World Cup appearance. Colombia come in as a CONMEBOL nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2014.

Uzbekistan 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 matches (0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded per game). Colombia 3W 1D 1L from their last 5 (1.6 / 1 per game). On the road, Colombia are averaging 3.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 3.28 expected goals for Uzbekistan and 3.41 for Colombia (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 40% Uzbekistan, 17% draw, 43% Colombia. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (93%). Colombia have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Uzbekistan vs Colombia prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 3-3 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 6.69 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 93%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Uzbekistan and Colombia ahead of kickoff.