Stuttgart's defence under the microscope

49 goals conceded

VfB Stuttgart have shipped 49 goals in 34 Bundesliga games this season, and that number has been nagging at me for weeks. Fourth place with 62 points is a fine return, but conceding 49 is the kind of figure that makes you wonder how much better this could all have been.

The back line built around Luca Jaquez, Maximilian Herwerth and Lorenz Assignon has had a reasonable season without ever looking airtight. What impresses me about Jaquez is the composure he tends to bring, he does not look like a player who panics when the press comes. Herwerth and Assignon have been serviceable, though I would not say either has nailed down their position as untouchable. Behind them, Alexander Nübel has been the steadier of the two goalkeepers listed, and Stuttgart have been fortunate to have him. Fabian Bredlow as backup is fine cover, but this is Nübel's defence to organise. Whether he has done enough of that organising to explain 49 goals against is a fair question. I do not think he has.

Forty-nine is not catastrophic. But for a side that finished fourth and scored 71 times, it points to a team that wins games in spite of its defence rather than because of it. There is a version of Stuttgart that tightens up at the back and finishes second. This version did not quite get there.

Fourth and what it actually cost them

Fourth in an 18-team Bundesliga is Champions League territory or close to it depending on the year, and 62 points is a genuine achievement. Stuttgart have not been pretending. The Stuttgart club hub has more on how the season unfolded across all competitions, but in the league alone, this is a side that beat most of what was put in front of them. Eighteen wins from 34 games. That is not a lucky fourth place.

Still. Fourth means someone finished above them. Three clubs finished above them. And when you look at that 49 goals conceded, the gap between Stuttgart and whoever sat third starts to look less mysterious. You can carry a leaky defence to fourth. Carrying it any higher is hard work.

Eight losses in 34 games is respectable, and the eight draws suggest a team that found ways to avoid losing even when they were not winning. But draws are points dropped when you are chasing the clubs above you, and I keep coming back to the feeling that Stuttgart left something on the table this season. Not a lot. Enough to matter.

Undav is carrying the goals

Let me be clear about something: Stuttgart's 71 goals did not arrive by accident, and the forward options available to the manager are genuinely exciting. Deniz Undav has been the focal point of this attack all season. I said I would not bang on about the numbers, but 71 league goals for a fourth-placed side is an attacking return that most top-half clubs would envy, and Undav's contribution to that is the biggest single reason Stuttgart have stayed in the top four conversation.

Ermedin Demirovic alongside him has given Stuttgart a second forward capable of frightening defences. The combination of Undav and Demirovic is the bit that impresses me most about how Stuttgart have set up, two strikers who press, who run channels, who finish. Jamie Leweling coming off the flank adds another dimension, though his consistency across 34 games has been patchier than the other two. You can find our predictions for how Stuttgart's attack might perform in European competition if they qualify, but domestically, this forward line has done its job and then some.

Seventy-one goals. Fourth place. The attack held up its end of the bargain.

The midfield service

Bilal El Khannouss in behind those attackers has been the creative piece that sometimes gets overlooked. Atakan Karazor and Angelo Stiller provide the platform. Karazor the defensive screen, Stiller more progressive, and between the three of them Stuttgart have had enough midfield quality to keep the front line fed. The goals from that front three did not arrive in a vacuum.

What the goal difference tells you about this side

Plus-22 goal difference for a fourth-placed team sounds about right, and in one sense it is. But the way it breaks down. 71 scored, 49 conceded, tells you this is a side built on attacking output rather than defensive solidity. That is a choice, or at least it has become one over the course of the season. The Paddy Power review page has Stuttgart's odds for next season if that interests you, and I imagine the markets will reflect exactly what the goal difference confirms: a team bookmakers will expect to score, and a team bookmakers will expect to concede against.

Plus-22 is healthy. The top sides in the Bundesliga will have better, and the fact that Stuttgart's positive difference comes so heavily from the attacking end does raise questions about the ceiling. You can outscore your defensive problems for a season. Doing it across multiple seasons while also competing in Europe. if that is where they end up, is a different challenge entirely.

What nags at me is the arithmetic. If Stuttgart had kept even five or six of those 49 goals out, they would be looking at a goal difference north of plus-27 or plus-28. That is a different conversation about where they finish. The defence gave back something the attack worked hard to build.

Nübel will need to be better next season, and the back four needs another level of organisation if Stuttgart are going to push higher. But the forward line gives them every reason for optimism. and right now, Deniz Undav is the player I most want to see tested against European opposition.