Argentina vs Egypt Prediction

Argentina vs Egypt: the preview

Argentina meet Egypt in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, July 7 at 12:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Argentina are 3-time world champions. Egypt come in as a CAF nation, best known for group stage in 1934, 1990 and 2018.

Argentina 7W 0D 1L in their last 8 matches (2.38 scored, 1 conceded per game). Egypt 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 (2.4 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, Argentina are averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Egypt are averaging 2.75 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Argentina and 1.66 for Egypt (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 52% Argentina, 21% draw, 26% Egypt. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (76%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (74%). Argentina are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Argentina vs Egypt prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-1 (52% confidence). It projects roughly 4.01 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 74%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Argentina and Egypt ahead of kickoff.