Colombia vs Ghana Prediction

Colombia vs Ghana: the preview

Colombia meet Ghana in Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, July 4 at 9:30 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Colombia are a CONMEBOL side whose best run is quarter-finals in 2014. Ghana come in as a CAF nation, best known for quarter-finals in 2010.

Colombia 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.6 scored, 1 conceded per game). Ghana 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (0.5 / 0.75 per game). At home specifically, Colombia are averaging 0.67 scored and 0.00 conceded. On the road, Ghana are averaging 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Colombia and 0.81 for Ghana (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Colombia, 31% draw, 20% Ghana. Under 2.5 carries 63% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Colombia are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Colombia vs Ghana prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (49% confidence). It projects roughly 2.19 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 43%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Colombia and Ghana ahead of kickoff.