France vs Morocco Prediction

France vs Morocco: the preview

France meet Morocco in Quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Thursday, July 9 at 4:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. France are 2-time world champions. Morocco come in as a CAF nation, best known for fourth place in 2022, the best by an African nation.

France 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.8 scored, 0.4 conceded per game). Morocco 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 (2.6 / 1.2 per game). At home specifically, France are averaging 3.00 scored and 0.33 conceded. On the road, Morocco are averaging 2.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for France and 1.10 for Morocco (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 33% France, 32% draw, 34% Morocco. Under 2.5 carries 63% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Morocco have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our France vs Morocco prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (34% confidence). It projects roughly 2.19 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 46%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on France and Morocco ahead of kickoff.