Mexico vs England Prediction

Mexico vs England: the preview

Mexico meet England in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, July 6 at 9:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Mexico are a CONCACAF side whose best run is two quarter-final runs on home soil (1970, 1986). England come in as 1-time winners.

Mexico 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game). England 6W 1D 1L from their last 8 (2.5 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Mexico are averaging 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. On the road, England are averaging 3.25 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Mexico and 4.44 for England (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 17% Mexico, 13% draw, 70% England. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (90%).

Our Mexico vs England prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-4 (70% confidence). It projects roughly 6.82 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 96% and both teams to score at 90%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Mexico and England ahead of kickoff.