Mexico vs England Prediction

Mexico vs England: the preview

Mexico meet England in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Monday, July 6 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Mexico are a CONCACAF side whose best run is two quarter-final runs on home soil (1970, 1986). England come in as 1-time winners.

Mexico 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 matches (2 scored, 0 conceded per game). England 3W 1D 0L from their last 4 (2 / 0.75 per game). At home specifically, Mexico are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Mexico and 2.87 for England (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% Mexico, 18% draw, 45% England. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (91%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (88%). England have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Mexico vs England prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-2 (45% confidence). It projects roughly 5.5 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 91% and both teams to score at 88%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Mexico and England ahead of kickoff.