Norway vs England Prediction

Norway vs England: the preview

Norway meet England in Quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, July 11 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Norway are a UEFA side whose best run is round of 16 in 1998. England come in as 1-time winners.

Norway 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game). England 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 (2.2 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Norway are averaging 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. On the road, England are averaging 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Norway and 3.20 for England (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 26% Norway, 17% draw, 56% England. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (91%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (86%).

Our Norway vs England prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 2-3 (56% confidence). It projects roughly 5.45 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 91% and both teams to score at 86%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Norway and England ahead of kickoff.