Paraguay vs France Prediction

Paraguay vs France: the preview

Paraguay meet France in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Saturday, July 4 at 5:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Paraguay are a CONMEBOL side whose best run is quarter-finals in 2010. France come in as 2-time winners.

Paraguay 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 matches (1.75 scored, 2 conceded per game). France 4W 0D 0L from their last 4 (3.25 / 0.5 per game). The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Paraguay and 1.41 for France (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 27% Paraguay, 30% draw, 43% France. France have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Our Paraguay vs France prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (43% confidence). It projects roughly 2.49 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Paraguay and France ahead of kickoff.