Spain vs Belgium Prediction

Spain vs Belgium: the preview

Spain meet Belgium in Quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Friday, July 10 at 3:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. Spain are 1-time world champions. Belgium come in as a UEFA nation, best known for third place in 2018.

Spain 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (1.8 scored, 0 conceded per game). Belgium 3W 2D 0L from their last 5 (2.6 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Spain are averaging 2.33 scored and 0.00 conceded. On the road, Belgium are averaging 4.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Spain and 1.64 for Belgium (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% Spain, 26% draw, 37% Belgium. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). Spain are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our Spain vs Belgium prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (37% confidence). It projects roughly 3.29 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on Spain and Belgium ahead of kickoff.