United States vs Belgium Prediction

United States vs Belgium: the preview

United States meet Belgium in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, July 7 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. United States are a CONCACAF side whose best run is third place at the inaugural 1930 tournament. Belgium come in as a UEFA nation, best known for third place in 2018.

United States 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 matches (2.5 scored, 1 conceded per game). Belgium 2W 2D 0L from their last 4 (2.25 / 1 per game). At home specifically, United States are averaging 2.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for United States and 1.13 for Belgium (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% United States, 31% draw, 32% Belgium. United States are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Our United States vs Belgium prediction

The model's lean is Home Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1 (37% confidence). It projects roughly 2.35 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 49%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on United States and Belgium ahead of kickoff.