United States vs Belgium Prediction

United States vs Belgium: the preview

United States meet Belgium in Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, kicking off Tuesday, July 7 at 8:00 PM Eastern across the United States, Canada, Mexico host nations. United States are a CONCACAF side whose best run is third place at the inaugural 1930 tournament. Belgium come in as a UEFA nation, best known for third place in 2018.

United States 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (2.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game). Belgium 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 (2.33 / 1.17 per game). At home specifically, United States are averaging 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. On the road, Belgium are averaging 3.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for United States and 2.26 for Belgium (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 23% United States, 22% draw, 55% Belgium. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (71%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (69%).

Our United States vs Belgium prediction

The model's lean is Away Win with a most-likely scoreline of 1-2 (55% confidence). It projects roughly 3.69 total goals, with Over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. As always these are probabilities, not certainties — team news and tournament pressure can swing a knockout night.

Compare it against the rest of the slate on our World Cup 2026 predictions page, or read up on United States and Belgium ahead of kickoff.