Bundesliga Predictions Today

Bremen 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 matches (1 scored, 1.63 conceded per game). Dortmund 4W 0D 3L from their last 7 (1.86 / 1.14 per game). At home specifically, Bremen are averaging 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Dortmund are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Bremen and 1.34 for Dortmund (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 37% Bremen, 29% draw, 35% Dortmund. Bremen are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Heidenheim 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 matches (2.43 scored, 1.71 conceded per game). Mainz 4W 1D 3L from their last 8 (1.63 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Heidenheim are averaging 2.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Mainz are averaging 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Heidenheim and 1.37 for Mainz (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 46% Heidenheim, 26% draw, 28% Mainz. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%). Heidenheim are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Freiburg 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 matches (1.25 scored, 1.75 conceded per game). RB Leipzig 6W 0D 2L from their last 8 (2.13 / 1.13 per game). At home specifically, Freiburg are averaging 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, RB Leipzig are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Freiburg and 1.44 for RB Leipzig (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 48% Freiburg, 24% draw, 28% RB Leipzig. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). Freiburg are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Frankfurt 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 matches (1.43 scored, 2 conceded per game). Stuttgart 4W 2D 2L from their last 8 (2.38 / 1.63 per game). At home specifically, Frankfurt are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. On the road, Stuttgart are averaging 3.33 scored and 3.00 conceded. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Frankfurt and 2.69 for Stuttgart (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 25% Frankfurt, 19% draw, 55% Stuttgart. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (83%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (79%).

St. Pauli 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 matches (0.71 scored, 2.14 conceded per game). Wolfsburg 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 (1 / 1.71 per game). At home specifically, St. Pauli are averaging 0.75 scored and 2.50 conceded. On the road, Wolfsburg are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for St. Pauli and 1.79 for Wolfsburg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 32% St. Pauli, 25% draw, 43% Wolfsburg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (65%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (67%). Wolfsburg have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Union Berlin 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 matches (1.25 scored, 2 conceded per game). Augsburg 3W 3D 1L from their last 7 (2 / 1.71 per game). At home specifically, Union Berlin are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. On the road, Augsburg are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.69 for Augsburg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 32% Union Berlin, 26% draw, 42% Augsburg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (64%). Augsburg have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

M'gladbach 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 matches (1.14 scored, 1.43 conceded per game). Hoffenheim 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 (1.57 / 2 per game). At home specifically, M'gladbach are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for M'gladbach and 1.31 for Hoffenheim (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% M'gladbach, 25% draw, 26% Hoffenheim. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%). M'gladbach are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Bayern 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 matches (3.43 scored, 1.43 conceded per game). 1. FC Köln 1W 4D 2L from their last 7 (1.86 / 2 per game). At home specifically, Bayern are averaging 3.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. On the road, 1. FC Köln are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Bayern and 1.91 for 1. FC Köln (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 53% Bayern, 20% draw, 27% 1. FC Köln. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (83%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (80%). Bayern are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Leverkusen 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 matches (2.57 scored, 1.86 conceded per game). HSV 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 (1.43 / 2.29 per game). At home specifically, Leverkusen are averaging 3.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, HSV are averaging 1.25 scored and 2.75 conceded. The model projects 3.37 expected goals for Leverkusen and 1.38 for HSV (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 74% Leverkusen, 14% draw, 12% HSV. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (85%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (73%).