Bundesliga Predictions Today

Union Berlin 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 3.4 conceded per game). Dortmund 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 (2.2 / 0.8 per game). At home specifically, Union Berlin are averaging 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Dortmund are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.31 for Dortmund (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 65% Union Berlin, 19% draw, 16% Dortmund. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (76%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (69%).

HSV 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 3 conceded per game). Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 (1.6 / 1.8 per game). At home specifically, HSV are averaging 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. On the road, Stuttgart are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for HSV and 1.98 for Stuttgart (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 41% HSV, 22% draw, 36% Stuttgart. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (77%). HSV are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Bremen 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 2 conceded per game). SC Paderborn 1W 1D 3L from their last 5 (0.6 / 1.4 per game). At home specifically, Bremen are averaging 3.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. On the road, SC Paderborn are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Bremen and 0.98 for SC Paderborn (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 74% Bremen, 16% draw, 10% SC Paderborn. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (72%) — look at the goals markets.

Elversberg 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.6 scored, 1.6 conceded per game). Augsburg 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 (2.6 / 1.6 per game). At home specifically, Elversberg are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. On the road, Augsburg are averaging 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Elversberg and 2.13 for Augsburg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Elversberg, 23% draw, 53% Augsburg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (68%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (67%). Augsburg have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Schalke 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game). Mainz 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 (2.6 / 2 per game). At home specifically, Schalke are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. On the road, Mainz are averaging 4.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Schalke and 1.05 for Mainz (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 63% Schalke, 21% draw, 15% Mainz. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets.

Bayern 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (3.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game). RB Leipzig 3W 0D 2L from their last 5 (3 / 1 per game). At home specifically, Bayern are averaging 6.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. On the road, RB Leipzig are averaging 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 3.49 expected goals for Bayern and 0.86 for RB Leipzig (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 85% Bayern, 10% draw, 5% RB Leipzig. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (80%) — look at the goals markets.

Leverkusen 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.8 scored, 1.6 conceded per game). Freiburg 4W 1D 0L from their last 5 (2.8 / 0.8 per game). At home specifically, Leverkusen are averaging 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. On the road, Freiburg are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 3.03 expected goals for Leverkusen and 0.81 for Freiburg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 81% Leverkusen, 13% draw, 6% Freiburg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (73%) — look at the goals markets.

M'gladbach 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 matches (1.4 scored, 3.6 conceded per game). Hoffenheim 1W 0D 4L from their last 5 (1.8 / 2.6 per game). At home specifically, M'gladbach are averaging 3.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. On the road, Hoffenheim are averaging 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded. The model projects 4.90 expected goals for M'gladbach and 1.87 for Hoffenheim (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 82% M'gladbach, 10% draw, 9% Hoffenheim. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (96%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (84%).