Free Serie A predictions for today. Data-driven Italian football tips with team form, BTTS analysis, Over/Under 2.5 goals predictions, and expert scoreline forecasts.
18:45 GMT
40%
Genoa
LL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Como 1907
WD
31%
Home
29%
Draw · xG 2.58
40%
Away
Double Chance
Como 1907 or Draw
69%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
54%
Full Analysis
Genoa 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game). Como 1907 1W 1D 0L from their last 2 (1.5 / 1 per game). On the road, Como 1907 are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Genoa and 1.39 for Como 1907 (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Genoa, 29% draw, 40% Como 1907. Como 1907 have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
13:00 GMT
58%
Fiorentina
LL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Torino
LL
58%
Home
24%
Draw · xG 3.03
18%
Away
Match Result
Fiorentina to Win
58%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
57%
Full Analysis
Fiorentina 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 3.5 conceded per game). Torino 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (1 / 2 per game). The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.05 for Torino (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 58% Fiorentina, 24% draw, 18% Torino.
16:00 GMT
43%
Inter
WW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Napoli
LW
43%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.81
29%
Away
Double Chance
Inter or Draw
71%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
58%
Full Analysis
Inter 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (2.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Napoli 1W 0D 1L from their last 2 (1.5 / 1 per game). The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Inter and 1.25 for Napoli (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 43% Inter, 28% draw, 29% Napoli. Inter are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
18:45 GMT
55%
Roma
WW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Atalanta
WW
22%
Home
23%
Draw · xG 3.31
55%
Away
Double Chance
Atalanta or Draw
78%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
63%
Full Analysis
Roma 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (4 scored, 0 conceded per game). Atalanta 2W 0D 0L from their last 2 (1.5 / 0.5 per game). The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Roma and 2.05 for Atalanta (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 22% Roma, 23% draw, 55% Atalanta. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%). Atalanta have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
13:00 GMT
41%
Parma
LL
Most Likely Score
2-2
Away Win
Monza
LL
38%
Home
21%
Draw · xG 4.32
41%
Away
Double Chance
Monza or Draw
62%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
80%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
79%
Full Analysis
Parma 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game). Monza 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (1.5 / 3.5 per game). The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Parma and 2.21 for Monza (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 38% Parma, 21% draw, 41% Monza. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (80%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (79%). Monza have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
13:00 GMT
35%
Frosinone
WL
Most Likely Score
0-0
Away Win
Venezia FC
LL
31%
Home
34%
Draw · xG 1.96
35%
Away
Double Chance
Venezia FC or Draw
69%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — No
59%
Full Analysis
Frosinone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Venezia FC 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (0 / 2 per game). The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.02 for Venezia FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Frosinone, 34% draw, 35% Venezia FC. Under 2.5 carries 69% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Venezia FC have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
16:00 GMT
62%
Bologna
LL
Most Likely Score
2-1
Home Win
Sassuolo
WL
62%
Home
21%
Draw · xG 3.61
17%
Away
Match Result
Bologna to Win
62%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
70%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
65%
Full Analysis
Bologna 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 1 conceded per game). Sassuolo 1W 0D 1L from their last 2 (1.5 / 1.5 per game). The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Bologna and 1.21 for Sassuolo (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 62% Bologna, 21% draw, 17% Sassuolo. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (70%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (65%).
18:45 GMT
77%
Juventus
WW
Most Likely Score
3-0
Home Win
Milan
WW
77%
Home
14%
Draw · xG 4.03
8%
Away
Match Result
Juventus to Win
77%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
76%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
60%
Full Analysis
Juventus 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 0 conceded per game). Milan 2W 0D 0L from their last 2 (2 / 0.5 per game). The model projects 3.04 expected goals for Juventus and 0.99 for Milan (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 77% Juventus, 14% draw, 8% Milan. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (76%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (60%).
Serie A Predictions — How We Analyse
Our Serie A predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
