Ligue 1 Predictions Today

Strasbourg 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 matches (1.83 scored, 2 conceded per game). PSG 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Strasbourg are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, PSG are averaging 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Strasbourg and 2.21 for PSG (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 23% Strasbourg, 22% draw, 54% PSG. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (70%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (69%). PSG have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Troyes 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 matches (0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded per game). RC Lens 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Troyes are averaging 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. On the road, RC Lens are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Troyes and 1.80 for RC Lens (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Troyes, 25% draw, 43% RC Lens. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). RC Lens have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Lille 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 matches (1.5 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Brest 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 (2 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Lille are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. On the road, Brest are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lille and 1.07 for Brest (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Lille, 28% draw, 24% Brest. Lille are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Angers SCO 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 matches (1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Marseille 2W 0D 4L from their last 6 (1.5 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Angers SCO are averaging 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Marseille are averaging 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Angers SCO and 1.21 for Marseille (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 27% Angers SCO, 32% draw, 40% Marseille. Under 2.5 carries 63% — a low-scoring affair is projected. Marseille have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Lorient 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 matches (1 scored, 1 conceded per game). Monaco 4W 2D 0L from their last 6 (1.67 / 0.83 per game). At home specifically, Lorient are averaging 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. On the road, Monaco are averaging 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lorient and 1.27 for Monaco (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 30% Lorient, 31% draw, 39% Monaco. Monaco have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Paris FC 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 matches (1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Stade Rennais 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 (2 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Paris FC are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded. On the road, Stade Rennais are averaging 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.89 for Stade Rennais (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 60% Paris FC, 24% draw, 16% Stade Rennais.

Le Havre 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 matches (0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Auxerre 2W 0D 4L from their last 6 (1.33 / 2.67 per game). At home specifically, Le Havre are averaging 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, Auxerre are averaging 1.33 scored and 4.00 conceded. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.06 for Auxerre (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 60% Le Havre, 23% draw, 17% Auxerre. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (62%) — look at the goals markets.

Olympique Lyon 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 matches (1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Nice 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 (0.83 / 1.17 per game). At home specifically, Olympique Lyon are averaging 2.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. On the road, Nice are averaging 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Olympique Lyon and 0.89 for Nice (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 53% Olympique Lyon, 28% draw, 19% Nice. Olympique Lyon are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.