Ligue 1 Predictions Today

Le Mans 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 matches (1.67 scored, 2 conceded per game). Toulouse 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 (1.5 / 1.83 per game). At home specifically, Le Mans are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded. On the road, Toulouse are averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Le Mans and 2.27 for Toulouse (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 35% Le Mans, 21% draw, 44% Toulouse. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (80%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (79%). Toulouse have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Strasbourg 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 matches (1.83 scored, 2 conceded per game). PSG 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.33 per game). At home specifically, Strasbourg are averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. On the road, PSG are averaging 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.66 for PSG (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 29% Strasbourg, 27% draw, 44% PSG. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%). PSG have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Troyes 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 matches (0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded per game). RC Lens 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 (1.83 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Troyes are averaging 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. On the road, RC Lens are averaging 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Troyes and 1.84 for RC Lens (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 30% Troyes, 25% draw, 45% RC Lens. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (64%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (66%). RC Lens have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Lille 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 matches (1.5 scored, 0.67 conceded per game). Brest 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 (2 / 1.5 per game). At home specifically, Lille are averaging 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. On the road, Brest are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lille and 1.07 for Brest (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 48% Lille, 28% draw, 24% Brest. Lille are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.