Ligue 1 Predictions Today

Olympique Lyon 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Auxerre 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (1.5 / 4 per game). The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Olympique Lyon and 2.21 for Auxerre (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 28% Olympique Lyon, 22% draw, 49% Auxerre. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (74%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (73%). Auxerre have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

PSG 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 2 conceded per game). Monaco 2W 0D 0L from their last 2 (1.5 / 0 per game). The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PSG and 1.67 for Monaco (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% PSG, 26% draw, 43% Monaco. Both teams scoring looks likely (62%). Monaco have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

RC Lens 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (3 scored, 2 conceded per game). Lorient 0W 1D 1L from their last 2 (0.5 / 1 per game). The model projects 2.33 expected goals for RC Lens and 2.05 for Lorient (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 44% RC Lens, 21% draw, 34% Lorient. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (81%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (79%). RC Lens are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Le Havre 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 matches (0.5 scored, 1 conceded per game). Brest 0W 2D 0L from their last 2 (2 / 2 per game). The model projects 5.15 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.96 for Brest (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 93% Le Havre, 5% draw, 2% Brest. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (93%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%).

Nice 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 matches (0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game). Le Mans 0W 1D 1L from their last 2 (2 / 2.5 per game). The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Nice and 1.77 for Le Mans (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 49% Nice, 22% draw, 29% Le Mans. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (75%). Nice are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.

Troyes 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 matches (1 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Strasbourg 1W 0D 1L from their last 2 (1 / 2.5 per game). The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Troyes and 1.34 for Strasbourg (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 66% Troyes, 18% draw, 16% Strasbourg. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (78%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (70%).

Angers SCO 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game). Stade Rennais 1W 1D 0L from their last 2 (2.5 / 2 per game). The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Angers SCO and 1.08 for Stade Rennais (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Angers SCO, 35% draw, 41% Stade Rennais. Under 2.5 carries 71% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (63%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Stade Rennais have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.

Marseille 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 1 conceded per game). Paris FC 1W 1D 0L from their last 2 (1.5 / 0 per game). The model projects 3.57 expected goals for Marseille and 2.22 for Paris FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 62% Marseille, 16% draw, 22% Paris FC. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (93%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (87%).