Free La Liga predictions for today. Expert analysis of Spanish football with form data, BTTS rates, Over/Under tips, and predicted scores for every La Liga fixture.
14:15 GMT
51%
Athletic
WLL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Atleti
WDW
51%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.61
22%
Away
Double Chance
Athletic or Draw
78%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
52%
Full Analysis
Athletic 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Atleti 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (2.33 / 1 per game). The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Athletic and 0.99 for Atleti (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 51% Athletic, 28% draw, 22% Atleti. Athletic are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
87%
Rayo Vallecano
LDL
Most Likely Score
3-0
Home Win
Santander
WLD
87%
Home
9%
Draw · xG 4.66
4%
Away
Match Result
Rayo Vallecano to Win
87%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
84%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
57%
Full Analysis
Rayo Vallecano 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded per game). Santander 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). The model projects 3.78 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.88 for Santander (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 87% Rayo Vallecano, 9% draw, 4% Santander. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (84%) — look at the goals markets.
19:00 GMT
91%
Villarreal
LDD
Most Likely Score
4-0
Home Win
Deportivo
WDD
91%
Home
6%
Draw · xG 5.05
3%
Away
Match Result
Villarreal to Win
91%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
87%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
53%
Full Analysis
Villarreal 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Deportivo 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1 per game). The model projects 4.27 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.78 for Deportivo (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 91% Villarreal, 6% draw, 3% Deportivo. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (87%) — look at the goals markets.
14:15 GMT
40%
Valencia
LLD
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Barça
WWW
31%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.78
40%
Away
Double Chance
Barça or Draw
69%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
58%
Full Analysis
Valencia 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Barça 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (4 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, Valencia are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Valencia and 1.49 for Barça (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Valencia, 28% draw, 40% Barça. Barça have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
16:30 GMT
47%
Alavés
WDW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Osasuna
WWD
47%
Home
29%
Draw · xG 2.51
24%
Away
Double Chance
Alavés or Draw
76%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
51%
Full Analysis
Alavés 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per game). Osasuna 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (1 / 0.33 per game). At home specifically, Alavés are averaging 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Alavés and 1.01 for Osasuna (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 47% Alavés, 29% draw, 24% Osasuna. Alavés are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
50%
Málaga
LDL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Levante
WDL
50%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.66
22%
Away
Double Chance
Málaga or Draw
78%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
53%
Full Analysis
Málaga 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded per game). Levante 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). On the road, Levante are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Málaga and 1.03 for Levante (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 50% Málaga, 27% draw, 22% Levante. Málaga are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
19:00 GMT
54%
Espanyol
LLW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Sevilla FC
LWW
54%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.69
20%
Away
Double Chance
Espanyol or Draw
80%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
52%
Full Analysis
Espanyol 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Sevilla FC 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (2 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Espanyol are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.97 for Sevilla FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 54% Espanyol, 27% draw, 20% Sevilla FC. Espanyol are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
17:00 GMT
68%
Getafe
LWL
Most Likely Score
2-0
Home Win
Celta
DLLD
68%
Home
21%
Draw · xG 3.01
11%
Away
Match Result
Getafe to Win
68%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
50%
Full Analysis
Getafe 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Celta 0W 2D 2L from their last 4 (0.25 / 1 per game). On the road, Celta are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Getafe and 0.81 for Celta (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 68% Getafe, 21% draw, 11% Celta.
19:30 GMT
56%
Elche
LLD
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Real Sociedad
DWLL
56%
Home
24%
Draw · xG 3.2
21%
Away
Match Result
Elche to Win
56%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
61%
Full Analysis
Elche 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 3 conceded per game). Real Sociedad 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 (0.75 / 1.5 per game). On the road, Real Sociedad are averaging 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Elche and 1.18 for Real Sociedad (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 56% Elche, 24% draw, 21% Real Sociedad. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (62%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%).
La Liga Predictions — How We Analyse
Our La Liga predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
