Free La Liga predictions for today. Expert analysis of Spanish football with form data, BTTS rates, Over/Under tips, and predicted scores for every La Liga fixture.
19:00 GMT
72%
Real Betis
LWW
Most Likely Score
1-3
Away Win
Real Madrid
WWW
14%
Home
14%
Draw · xG 5.12
72%
Away
Match Result
Real Madrid to Win
72%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
88%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
78%
Full Analysis
Real Betis 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Real Madrid 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (3.33 / 0.67 per game). The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Real Betis and 3.51 for Real Madrid (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 14% Real Betis, 14% draw, 72% Real Madrid. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (88%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (78%).
14:15 GMT
51%
Athletic
WLL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Atleti
WDW
51%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.72
22%
Away
Double Chance
Athletic or Draw
78%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
54%
Full Analysis
Athletic 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Atleti 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (2.33 / 1 per game). The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Athletic and 1.03 for Atleti (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 51% Athletic, 27% draw, 22% Atleti. Athletic are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
87%
Rayo Vallecano
LDL
Most Likely Score
3-0
Home Win
Santander
WLD
87%
Home
8%
Draw · xG 4.86
4%
Away
Match Result
Rayo Vallecano to Win
87%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
86%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
59%
Full Analysis
Rayo Vallecano 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded per game). Santander 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). The model projects 3.94 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.92 for Santander (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 87% Rayo Vallecano, 8% draw, 4% Santander. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (86%) — look at the goals markets.
19:00 GMT
92%
Villarreal
LDD
Most Likely Score
4-0
Home Win
Deportivo
WDD
92%
Home
6%
Draw · xG 5.25
2%
Away
Match Result
Villarreal to Win
92%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
89%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
55%
Full Analysis
Villarreal 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 matches (1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game). Deportivo 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1 per game). The model projects 4.44 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.81 for Deportivo (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 92% Villarreal, 6% draw, 2% Deportivo. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (89%) — look at the goals markets.
14:15 GMT
43%
Valencia
LLD
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Barça
WWW
28%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.71
43%
Away
Double Chance
Barça or Draw
72%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
56%
Full Analysis
Valencia 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Barça 3W 0D 0L from their last 3 (4 / 0.67 per game). At home specifically, Valencia are averaging 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Valencia and 1.52 for Barça (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 28% Valencia, 28% draw, 43% Barça. Barça have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
16:30 GMT
48%
Alavés
WDW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Osasuna
WWD
48%
Home
28%
Draw · xG 2.62
24%
Away
Double Chance
Alavés or Draw
76%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
53%
Full Analysis
Alavés 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per game). Osasuna 2W 1D 0L from their last 3 (1 / 0.33 per game). At home specifically, Alavés are averaging 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Alavés and 1.06 for Osasuna (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 48% Alavés, 28% draw, 24% Osasuna. Alavés are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
16:30 GMT
57%
Málaga
LDL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Levante
WDL
57%
Home
26%
Draw · xG 2.55
17%
Away
Match Result
Málaga to Win
57%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — No
52%
Full Analysis
Málaga 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 matches (0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded per game). Levante 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 (1.67 / 1.67 per game). On the road, Levante are averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Málaga and 0.83 for Levante (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 57% Málaga, 26% draw, 17% Levante.
19:00 GMT
59%
Espanyol
LLW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Home Win
Sevilla FC
LWW
59%
Home
25%
Draw · xG 2.7
16%
Away
Match Result
Espanyol to Win
59%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — No
50%
Full Analysis
Espanyol 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 matches (1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded per game). Sevilla FC 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 (2 / 1.67 per game). At home specifically, Espanyol are averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.87 for Sevilla FC (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 59% Espanyol, 25% draw, 16% Sevilla FC.
La Liga Predictions — How We Analyse
Our La Liga predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
