Free Premier League predictions for today. Data-driven analysis of every PL match with form stats, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5 goals tips, and predicted scores. Expert English football tips.
19:00 GMT
49%
Ipswich Town
LW
Most Likely Score
2-2
Away Win
Liverpool
DD
31%
Home
20%
Draw · xG 4.68
49%
Away
Double Chance
Liverpool or Draw
69%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
84%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
82%
Full Analysis
Ipswich Town 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 3 conceded per game). Liverpool 0W 2D 0L from their last 2 (2 / 2 per game). The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Ipswich Town and 2.59 for Liverpool (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 31% Ipswich Town, 20% draw, 49% Liverpool. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (84%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (82%). Liverpool have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
11:30 GMT
84%
Newcastle
WD
Most Likely Score
0-3
Away Win
Bournemouth
DL
5%
Home
11%
Draw · xG 4.22
84%
Away
Match Result
Bournemouth to Win
84%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
79%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
55%
Full Analysis
Newcastle 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 1 conceded per game). Bournemouth 0W 1D 1L from their last 2 (1 / 1.5 per game). The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Newcastle and 3.39 for Bournemouth (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 5% Newcastle, 11% draw, 84% Bournemouth. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (79%) — look at the goals markets.
14:00 GMT
41%
Nottingham
DL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Tottenham
LL
35%
Home
24%
Draw · xG 3.53
41%
Away
Double Chance
Tottenham or Draw
65%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
70%
Full Analysis
Nottingham 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 matches (1 scored, 1.5 conceded per game). Tottenham 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (0 / 2.5 per game). The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Nottingham and 1.84 for Tottenham (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 35% Nottingham, 24% draw, 41% Tottenham. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (68%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (70%). Tottenham have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
14:00 GMT
92%
Man City
WW
Most Likely Score
1-5
Away Win
Coventry City
LL
3%
Home
5%
Draw · xG 7.36
92%
Away
Match Result
Coventry City to Win
92%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
97%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
76%
Full Analysis
Man City 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (3 scored, 1 conceded per game). Coventry City 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (0 / 2 per game). The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Man City and 5.95 for Coventry City (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 3% Man City, 5% draw, 92% Coventry City. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (97%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (76%).
14:00 GMT
56%
Brighton Hove
LW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Leeds United
DW
21%
Home
24%
Draw · xG 3.16
56%
Away
Match Result
Leeds United to Win
56%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
61%
Full Analysis
Brighton Hove 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 matches (3.5 scored, 2 conceded per game). Leeds United 1W 1D 0L from their last 2 (1 / 0.5 per game). The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Brighton Hove and 2.00 for Leeds United (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 21% Brighton Hove, 24% draw, 56% Leeds United. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (61%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (61%).
14:00 GMT
40%
Brentford
DW
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Sunderland
WL
35%
Home
25%
Draw · xG 3.41
40%
Away
Double Chance
Sunderland or Draw
65%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
68%
Full Analysis
Brentford 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Sunderland 1W 0D 1L from their last 2 (1 / 1 per game). The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brentford and 1.76 for Sunderland (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 35% Brentford, 25% draw, 40% Sunderland. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (66%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (68%). Sunderland have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
14:00 GMT
49%
Fulham
LL
Most Likely Score
1-1
Away Win
Crystal Palace
LL
24%
Home
27%
Draw · xG 2.84
49%
Away
Double Chance
Crystal Palace or Draw
76%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
57%
Full Analysis
Fulham 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 matches (1 scored, 2 conceded per game). Crystal Palace 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (0.5 / 3 per game). The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fulham and 1.70 for Crystal Palace (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 24% Fulham, 27% draw, 49% Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace have the numbers, though away wins are never straightforward. Draw No Bet hedges.
16:30 GMT
36%
Hull City
WW
Most Likely Score
0-0
Draw
Aston Villa
LL
28%
Home
36%
Draw · xG 1.8
36%
Away
Double Chance
Aston Villa or Draw
72%
Over/Under Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
73%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — No
63%
Full Analysis
Hull City 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 0 conceded per game). Aston Villa 0W 0D 2L from their last 2 (0 / 2.5 per game). The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hull City and 0.97 for Aston Villa (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 28% Hull City, 36% draw, 36% Aston Villa. Under 2.5 carries 73% — a low-scoring affair is projected. BTTS No is the angle (63%) — at least one side is projected to blank. Hard to split on projected goals — the draw is the model's call, Double Chance covers it safely.
13:00 GMT
75%
Everton
DW
Most Likely Score
1-2
Away Win
Man United
WL
10%
Home
15%
Draw · xG 4.07
75%
Away
Match Result
Man United to Win
75%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
77%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
63%
Full Analysis
Everton 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 matches (1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game). Man United 1W 0D 1L from their last 2 (2.5 / 2 per game). The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Everton and 2.99 for Man United (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 10% Everton, 15% draw, 75% Man United. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (77%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%).
15:30 GMT
86%
Arsenal
WW
Most Likely Score
1-3
Away Win
Chelsea
WW
5%
Home
9%
Draw · xG 4.99
86%
Away
Match Result
Chelsea to Win
86%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
87%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
63%
Full Analysis
Arsenal 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 matches (2 scored, 0 conceded per game). Chelsea 2W 0D 0L from their last 2 (3.5 / 2.5 per game). The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Arsenal and 3.98 for Chelsea (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 5% Arsenal, 9% draw, 86% Chelsea. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (87%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (63%).
Premier League Predictions — How We Analyse
Our Premier League predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
