Free Premier League predictions for today. Data-driven analysis of every PL match with form stats, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5 goals tips, and predicted scores. Expert English football tips.
19:00 GMT
50%
Aston Villa
DLLWDWL
Most Likely Score
2-1
Home Win
Liverpool
DLWWWLD
50%
Home
21%
Draw · xG 4.18
29%
Away
Double Chance
Aston Villa or Draw
71%
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
79%
BTTS
Both Teams to Score — Yes
77%
Full Analysis
Aston Villa 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 matches (1.57 scored, 1.71 conceded per game). Liverpool 3W 2D 2L from their last 7 (1.71 / 1.29 per game). At home specifically, Aston Villa are averaging 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. On the road, Liverpool are averaging 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.81 for Liverpool (Dixon–Coles-corrected Poisson, 40-day form half-life, strength-of-schedule adjusted). Probabilities: 50% Aston Villa, 21% draw, 29% Liverpool. Goal totals favour Over 2.5 (79%) — look at the goals markets. Both teams scoring looks likely (77%). Aston Villa are favoured but it's not a banker — Double Chance reduces the risk.
Premier League Predictions — How We Analyse
Our Premier League predictions are generated using real match data from the current season. We analyse each team's last 5 results to calculate form points, goals per game, clean sheet rates, and BTTS percentages. Home advantage is factored as a statistical bonus for the host team.
